The Pendragon's Hall

The South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus turned out pretty much as I surmised. I remain optimistic that Romney can compete--in fact, I think the down-to-the-wire battle will be between Romney and McCain, and with most of the inclusive Republican primaries over, McCain had better hope the voters in the upcoming Republican-only primaries have collective amnesia or their car breaks down on the way to the polls. We're still alive.

But an issue of more generality weighs on my mind. Four years ago, conservative Democrat Zell Miller (a man who should have been President) endorsed President Bush and criticized his party as "a national party no more." This has been true of the Democrats--they play well to west coast liberals and east coast elites, but not so well in middle America. Yet four years later the Republicans are in the same predicament. We are the party of the South. The South threatens to go home every time they don't like the way the game is played and this includes choosing a presidential candidate and dictating the platform. Since the southern states have been such a huge bloc of Bush and Reagan conservatism, they have justifiably had a lot of clout. Again, tonight southern Republicans chose southern candidates, including one (Huckabee) who demonstrably tried to raise the regional awareness, referring to himself as "the first in the south candidate." This is a mistake. Of the last six Democratic presidential candidates, three have been from the south and three from the north. There is nothing reflecting that balance in the Republican party. But the problem is this: Ohio and Iowa teeter on the edge. If the Democrats win every state they won in 2004 plus Ohio and Iowa, they win the White House. Republicans cannot afford to lose any states and they should be attempting to make inroads in Democratic territory. If Obama or Hillary have to spend time and money to ensure they win their traditional strongholds in the North, Michigan, Illinois, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, they won't have the resources to go after the Republicans in states like Florida, Virginia and Missouri. Furthermore, having two regional parties sets us up for conflict and gridlock and nothing will ever get done. What we will have is a Republican party running mostly in the south and mountain states and the Democrats in the north, west and midwest. Every president will necessarily alienate a section of the country simply by his or her existence. We've come a long way from the days of secession but the tension is still there, thanks to leadership that refuses to look beyond their traditional supporters and leaders. I only hope the Republicans rectify this situation before the Democrats do.