The Pendragon's Hall

The headlines in the NYT today announced that the Bush administration is considering whether to end its longstanding policy towards rogue states and enter into discussions with Iran, the terrorist state now seeking nuclear weapons. The Pendragon would like to step away from his conservative credentials for a moment and say I think this is a good idea. I supported the war in Iraq, still do as a matter of fact, but in facing Saddam Hussein the United States was pitted against a megalomaniac bent on gaining WMD's. In Iran and in North Korea we face people who either already have them or are very close to getting them. This changes the equation considerably.

First of all, let me unequivocably state that the end of any diplomacy must be unconditional disarmament by the rogue state involved. With their history of aggression and unbalanced government, neither Iran nor North Korea is responsible enough to be trusted for nuclear weapons even in their own defense. Since this is true, any kind of energy system they develop must not be based in nuclear power, since the temptation would be there to begin an undercover program again (nuclear power sites are not monitored by the UN). This is non-negotiable. Any agreement reached must have as its goal complete disarmament. Since the efficiency of economic sanctions is questionable--in Iran it has served to make us "the Great Satan" and the government in Pyongyang has shown no remorse in living in prosperity while condemning its populace to starve--the threat of some kind of force cannot be completely taken off the table. The world's only superpower would be trading its best weapon, besides sending a message to the Iranians and North Koreans that having nuclear weapons puts them in charge. There will be no disarmament if they realize this. Besides which, talks and economic sanctions put the world at risk and harm the people living there but only the threat of military intervention involves the rogue government itself in the risk and makes it interested in dealing with the civilized world again. Nevertheless, we cannot expect any nation to completely put itself out in a confrontation with the United States or any other power, therefore we must be smart about this. The government must be made to see that it is in their best interest to disarm. A package of incentives might be offered for complete and verified disarmament, through an agency of our choosing not theirs: diplomatic recognition for the government involved, a no-invasion pledge provided the agreement is followed, stepped-up economic ties (in the case of Iran a particularly good idea at the moment), and help in developing a safe, stable non-nuclear energy source. Will this work? I do not know. The Iranian president is a nutcase and Kim Jong Il is not prone to intelligent, rational decision making, whatever Jimbo Carter might say. But in the wake of such an offer, made publicly, a rejection would unite the entire world and there would be much more widespread support for military intervention than there would be if that was threatened first. The United States would be "the good guy"--nobody could deny it. And it would be an important victory for US diplomacy, right now under suspicion as being the civilian branch of the military. For all these reasons, the Pendragon is hopeful that the Bush administration will not scorn diplomacy but will keep a hand on the revolver just in case.